The Craics site states that $170B+ of construction change orders are negotiated in the United States each year between parties with asymmetric information. This note records how the figure is built.
| Step | Figure | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| US construction put in place, annually | $2.1T | US Census construction spending |
| Contract value arriving as change orders | 8 to 14% | Industry change order studies |
| Implied annual change order volume | $170B to $290B | The product of the two figures above |
Applying the published change rate range to annual put in place yields roughly $170B at the low end and $290B at the high end. The site anchors on the low end and writes the figure as $170B+.
Craics assesses submitted numbers downward for a living. Its own headline number is held to the same standard: the anchor is the figure that survives the least generous reading of the sources, so a reader who checks the arithmetic finds the claim under-stated rather than over-stated.
Put in place measures work performed in a year, which is not identical to contract value formed in a year; the change rate range spans studies with differing scopes and delivery methods; and change order volume includes both additions and credits. The figure is directional, and it is presented as such. It is not derived from any client's data.